When Caleb Williams, quarterback for the Chicago Bears steps onto the field at Northwest Stadium in Landover, Maryland, he’ll be staring down a familiar target: Jayden Daniels, quarterback of the Washington Commanders. The clash is part of Monday Night FootballNorthwest Stadium, kicking off at 8:15 p.m. ET on October 13, 2025.
Exactly a year ago, the same two quarterbacks met in the final minutes of a Week 8 showdown. Daniels launched a 52‑yard Hail Mary that landed as the clock hit zero, sending the Commanders to a dramatic win and sparking a cascade of events for Chicago. The Bears, then riding a three‑game winning streak, spiraled into a ten‑game losing slide that culminated in the dismissal of head coach Matt Eberflus. Washington, under first‑year head coach Dan Quinn, rode that momentum to the NFC Championship Game – their first appearance since the 1991 season when the franchise was still known as the Redskins.
Williams entered the 2025 season as the league’s rookie sensation, sitting at an 8‑2 touchdown‑to‑interception ratio after four games. He’s averaging just under 330 total yards per contest, while the Bears’ defense is ceding 379.5 yards on average – a glaring weakness against the run. On the other side, Daniels, the 2024‑25 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, boasts a 59.2 % completion rate and has avoided a single interception through three starts, despite missing two games with a knee bruise.
Washington’s defense, though officially listed as allowing “north of 350” yards per game, has shown inconsistency stopping the ground attack. That opens a potential backdoor for rookie running back Jacory Croskey‑Merritt, who has already logged three 100‑yard games. If the Commanders can blunt Williams’ rushing attempts, the Bears could be forced to rely on a passing game that has been uneven at times.
Quinn’s scheme emphasizes aggressive press coverage on the outside, hoping to jam Daniels and force him into short, high‑percentage throws. The plan hinges on the health of Washington’s wide‑receiver corps – a cluster of injuries that analyst Geoffrey Clark believes is undervalued by the market. Meanwhile, the Bears’ new head coach, Rick Dennison (promoted from offensive coordinator after Eberflus’ exit), has leaned on a tilt‑the‑field approach, mixing play‑action passes with inside runs to keep defenses guessing.
Kevin Warren, president and CEO of the Bears, has publicly insisted that “the team is hungry for redemption” after last year’s collapse. In contrast, Washington’s owner group, led by Josh Harris, has poured additional cap space into depth at receiver, hoping to offset the injury risk and keep Daniels’ timing crisp.
Oddsmakers have Washington listed as a -5.5 favorite, with the over/under set at 51.5 points. Clark, host of The OutKick Bets Podcast, argues the spread should be wider: “Daniels needs a 99th‑percentile performance to cover -5.5. The market isn’t factoring in the WR injuries – I’d say at least a two‑point swing.” He predicts a tight 27‑24 Bears victory and recommends “Chicago +5.5 (down to +4.5) with a sprinkle on the moneyline.”
Vegas Consensus, however, points to the Commanders’ recent 7‑2‑0 ATS record over their last nine games and a perfect 5‑0‑0 at home. That consistency, combined with a rested squad after a bye, makes the spread a tempting play for contrarians who trust the Bears’ offensive firepower.
Beyond the immediate win‑loss column, the game serves as a litmus test for two divergent narratives. For Chicago, a victory would signal that the post‑Eberflus rebuild is finally taking shape, appeasing a fanbase that has endured a decade of mediocrity. It would also boost Williams’ draft pedigree ahead of a potential Heisman‑Level sophomore season.
Washington, on the other hand, is looking to cement its resurgence under Quinn and prove that the 2024 NFC Championship run was no fluke. A strong showing would keep the Commanders in the conversation for the NFC East title and add momentum heading into the mid‑season stretch.
Chicago’s defense is allowing 379.5 yards per game, with the run accounting for roughly 140 of those yards. If Washington leans on rookie Jacory Croskey‑Merritt and can establish a ground rhythm early, the Bears could be forced into passing situations where Williams’ in‑experience might be exposed.
Analysts note that Washington entered the night with three of its top five receivers listed as questionable. The missing play‑making ability could shrink the offensive ceiling by 2–3 points, a factor many bettors feel the -5.5 line doesn’t fully reflect.
Williams boasts an 8‑2 TD‑INT ratio and a 330‑yard per‑game average, but he’s still adapting to NFL defenses. Defensive fronts that disguise blitzes may test his decision‑making, potentially inflating his interception risk as the season progresses.
A victory would solidify Quinn’s first‑year turnaround narrative, validating the aggressive defensive schemes he installed. It would also keep Washington on the right side of the NFC East race, where a single loss could hand the division to a rival.
The Bears head to Green Bay for a Week 7 clash on October 20, while Washington travels to Philadelphia for a divisional showdown in Week 8, setting up two critical tests before the mid‑season break.